Saturday, October 9, 2010

What is an auction with no result ?

Reading the REIV's auction clearance figures, one cant help wondering what is an 'auction with no result' and how does it differ from an auction that is passed in ?

Well the REIV does not actually define on its website what it actually means.. so I really dont know. But this is what I think it means :

If an auction is passed in or passed in on a vendors bid then it implies that there was a bid made, and that bid did not reach the vendors reserve. So that is a result of sorts. A failure.

If the auction had no result, then I assume that there was no bids made, therefore the REIV conveniently omits these figures from its clearance rates.

So we need to adjust the REIV clearance rates to reflect the fact that a quantity of auctions didnt manage to generate a single bid.

The REIV results from yesterday are below :

TOTAL AUCTIONS

This week: 669
Last weekend: 492
This time last year: 577

S Sold at Auction: 370
SB Sold before Auction: 82
SA Sold after Auction: 2

Passed in: 215
Passed in on vendor’s bid: 135

Clearance rate: 68%

Postponed: 0
Withdrawn: 0
Auctions with no result: 127

http://www.reiv.com.au/home/inside.asp?ID=142

So, to calculate the real clearance rate we need to adjust the failed auctions to include those that didnt attract any bids (127 + 215 = 342) and similarly adjust the total auctions (669 + 127 = 796). Our adjusted clearance rate is now 57% not 68%.

Draw your own conclusions on the ethics of the method used to calculate clearance rates. Actually there is a very good quote on the APM website which would probably apply just as well to the REIV :

APM's attention to detail and a willingness to push the boundaries of mathematical possibility has given them the edge in Australian property value estimation.

http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/

I would certainly agree that the reported clearance rates are pushing the boundaries of mathematical possibility !!




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